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Interest Rate Trends and Recommendation

Good morning! Interest rate trends: Today – Slightly higher; 10 days – Higher; 25 days – Flat Interest rate recommendation: Locking bias MBS’s are flat to slightly worse this morning on a mixed bag of economic news. Initial Jobless claims came in much higher than expected, but Retail Sales came in slightly higher than expected. Yesterday’s 10 year bond auction garnered a dismal C- rating and cause MBS’s to sell off and lose -40+bps. Those that locked based upon our locking bias did well. Today the Treasury will hold another auction, this time 30 year bond...

December 12th, 2013 Interest Rate Trends and Recommendation

Interest Rate Trends and Recommendation

Good morning! Interest rate trends: Today – Higher; 10 days – Higher; 25 days – Flat Interest rate recommendation: Locking bias MBS’s worsen a little after 3 days of improvement. Talk of potential tapering next week has caused both the Stock and Bond markets to worsen, as well as international markets. We still don’t think there will be any tapering until March, but analysts are putting the odds at 50/50 for tapering next week. Analysts are recommending locking ahead of next weeks Fed statement. With MBS’s worse this morning, that could be a good idea, bu...

December 11th, 2013 Interest Rate Trends and Recommendation

Interest Rate Trends and Recommendation

Good morning! Interest rate trends: Today – Lower; 10 days – Higher; 25 days – Flat Interest rate recommendation: Cautious float MBS’s continue their move better, now 3 days straight after Friday’s Jobs Report. Currently MBS’s are at +25bps. There are no economic reports being released today, but the remainder of the week is full of news. We continue our floating recommendation, but will be watching carefully after today’s Treasury auction of $30 billion in 3 year notes. We are also watching to see if MBS’s can reach the first level of resista...

December 10th, 2013 Interest Rate Trends and Recommendation

Interest Rate Trends and Recommendation

Good morning! Interest rate trends: Today – Slightly better; 10 days – Higher; 25 days – Flat Interest rate recommendation: Cautious float MBS’s continue their move better after Friday’s Jobs Report. Currently MBS’s are at +19bps. The National Association for Business Economics survey shows a 2.8% GDP for 2013 and Fed tapering to begin in the first half of 2014. We agree. There are no economic reports due out today, but the Treasury will auction $64 billion in debt this week, beginning on Tuesday and ending on Thursday. The next FOMC meeting is on the 17t...

December 9th, 2013 Interest Rate Trends and Recommendation

Interest Rate Trends and Recommendation

Good morning! Interest rate trends: Today – Flat; 10 days – Higher; 25 days – Higher Interest rate recommendation: Cautious float MBS’s took a knee jerk reaction to today’s Jobs Report that came out just slightly better than expectations, but didn’t surprise the markets. Initially MBS’s took a dive worse but since have come back and are currently slightly better at +18bps. Consumer Sentiment also came in higher than expected. The numbers are good for the economy, but they aren’t surprising and are not causing a big reaction. Although the Stock...

December 6th, 2013 Interest Rate Trends and Recommendation

Interest Rate Trends and Recommendation

Good morning! Interest rate trends: Today – Higher; 10 days – Higher; 25 days – Higher Interest rate recommendation: Locking MBS’s continue on a worsening trend with the GDP figure coming in better than expected for Q3 and Initial Jobless Claims declining 23k. Analysts are recommending locking going into tomorrow’s Jobs Report, which will likely be an interest rate mover. The trend is not on the side of lower interest rates, so we expect a jump of .125% or 1/8th to the interest rates tomorrow when the Jobs Report comes out north of 200k. If for some unseen reas...

December 5th, 2013 Interest Rate Trends and Recommendation