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March 17th, 2014

March 17, 2014; 9:29am

Good morning!

Interest rate trends: Today – Flat; 10 days – Flat; 25 days – Flat

Interest rate recommendation:  Locking bias

Mortgage bonds (MBS’s) are flat to slightly worse this morning as the stock market rally’s.  The Empire Manufacturing index came out where expected and better than last month.  The March NAHP Housing Market Index came in at 47, up from 46 last month, but 50 and above is considered good.  As mentioned last week, the improvement we saw in interest rates and pricing due to tension in the Ukraine would likely be short lived is coming to pass.  We thus change to a locking bias recommendation.  This week we have the FOMC meeting on Wednesday where we expect the Fed to continue the $10 billion tapering, anything other than that could cause market volatility.  Tomorrow we have the CPI numbers that will tell us how inflation is doing on the consumer side.  We expect it to be tame, but remember increasing inflation is an enemy to interest rates.  Have a great day!

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